Five questions every food company should ask their suppliers (and themselves) today

Climate change is no longer a distant threat. It's an immediate and escalating crisis disrupting global supply chains right now.

The UK is particularly vulnerable. We import 84% of our fruit and 47% of our vegetables. The DEFRA Food Security Report 2024 highlights growing vulnerabilities in these supply chains, both at home and abroad.

Extreme weather events are already disrupting agricultural production and destabilizing the supply chains we depend on. Without action, we face supply disruptions, economic losses, rising food costs, and increased vulnerability for consumers.

The time to act is now. Businesses and policymakers must integrate climate risk into their decision-making. Here are five critical questions every fresh produce importer should be asking to build resilience and protect against future climate impacts.

1. How are we integrating climate risk into our business decisions today?

Climate change isn't just an environmental issue anymore. It's a core business concern with massive financial implications.

The numbers are stark. Between 2014 and 2023, global warming accelerated to 0.26°C per decade. 2023 was the hottest year on record. We're seeing clear acceleration compared to previous decades.

Global economic losses from climate change are projected to reach $38 trillion annually by 2050. That's not a distant problem - it's affecting supply chains and costs right now.

Delaying action leads to supply disruptions, economic losses, rising food costs, and increased consumer vulnerability. We need swift and decisive intervention to prevent further destabilization of economies and food security.

The question is: are you building climate considerations into every supply chain decision, or hoping the problem goes away?

2. What specific climate risks face our key supply countries and regions?

The UK's fresh produce imports are heavily concentrated. Just 10 countries supply 64% of our imported fruit and vegetables. This concentration creates coordinated risk when climate hits these regions.

The projections for our top 10 supply countries by 2050 are concerning:

• Average temperature increases of 16%

• More than half will see extreme heat days (24hr average above 35°C) double

• 72% of produce from these countries will face extreme water stress

• 41% of our current supply will move to high or very high flood risk

We're already seeing the impact. Between 2019 and 2024, the UK increased spending by 43% in countries with high water pressure risk.

Look at specific examples. Spain sees 75% of its land at risk of desertification, with agricultural losses of over €550 million annually. Morocco's key regions face severe water shortages. Egypt deals with rising temperatures, droughts, and flooding.

But here's the crucial point: national averages hide local variations. You need detailed, local-level risk assessments for specific farm locations. A country might look stable while your specific supplier faces severe risk.

3. Have we quantified the financial impact of these climate risks?

Understanding the risk is one thing. Measuring its financial impact is another.

Climate risk comes from the relationship between vulnerability and financial impact. Vulnerability is the likelihood of an extreme event multiplied by its severity. Climate risk is that vulnerability multiplied by the financial cost.

You need to estimate the cost or loss of supply from specific climate events - floods, droughts, extreme heat, storms. Include crop losses, yield reductions, and infrastructure damage.

Rank these impacts as a percentage of total revenue, supplier spend, or profit. This gives you a clear measure of financial exposure.

This quantification lets you prioritize risks across your supplier network and target your mitigation efforts where they'll have the biggest impact.

4. What collaborative strategies are we developing with suppliers to build resilience?

Building resilience isn't something you can do alone. You need to work with growers and suppliers to create mitigation plans.

Mitigation planning means developing strategies to reduce risks. This could involve improving existing farm locations or diversifying to areas less affected by climate change.

The key is investing in innovative, science-backed solutions. Examples include improving water management in key regions and advancing sustainable farming practices.

Supporting overseas supply chains to invest in sustainable and resilient practices is crucial. This collaborative approach helps strengthen resilience, safeguard production consistency and quality, and secure a stable food supply.

The suppliers who are already making these investments will be your most reliable partners as climate pressures intensify.

5. Are we diversifying our supply sources and investing in climate-resilient practices?

The urgency is clear: we need proactive measures to protect the UK's fruit and vegetable supply. This means diversifying supply chains and fostering climate-resilient agricultural practices.

Diversifying supply sources reduces dependency on high-risk regions. When one area faces climate stress, you have alternatives ready.

We also need to implement sustainable agricultural practices that mitigate climate impact. Essential tools include controlled environment farming, regenerative agriculture, and improved water management.

These aren't just nice-to-have initiatives. They're vital for securing a stable food supply, strengthening resilience, and stabilizing prices. We need innovative, resilient strategies that protect our food systems from climate impacts, supply chain disruptions, and rising costs.

Time to act

There should be little doubt about the growing and immediate risks that climate change poses to UK food security. Rising global temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increasing extreme weather events are already destabilizing key agricultural regions.

As the UK continues to rely heavily on climate-vulnerable supplier countries, these risks threaten long-term food availability, economic stability, and public health.

The importers who answer these five questions honestly - and act on what they find - will build the resilient supply chains needed for the next decade. Those who wait will face higher costs, supply disruptions, and limited options as climate pressures intensify.

The time to act is now. Evaluate your current practices. Assess your vulnerabilities. Adopt proactive strategies to secure a resilient food supply chain for the future.

Want the complete analysis behind these projections? Our full strategic report "Climate Change and Fresh Food Security" provides detailed climate risk data for all major UK supplier countries, comprehensive vulnerability assessment frameworks, and practical guidance for building supply chain resilience. Download the complete report to access the data and tools you need to protect your supply chain.