Climate threats to domestic and imported fresh food production puts UK food security at risk by 2050; Sector urged to take action to reduce risk to supply

A new report published today has identified a significant risk to the UK’s fresh food supply if domestic and import producers do not take action to understand and reduce the impact of climate change.  The report’s focus on imported produce complements the current reporting on the UK’s domestic vulnerability to climate change.

In 2024, the UK imported 47% of its vegetables and 84% of its fruit, making it highly dependent on international growing conditions. With 2023 confirmed as the hottest year on record, and 22 July 2024 the hottest day ever recorded globally, the report argues that the risk of more frequent and severe extreme weather is no longer abstract. Importers must prepare for increasingly frequent heatwaves, droughts, and flooding in supplier regions.

The analysis, conducted by sustainability consultancy Aethr Associates in collaboration with the Fresh Produce Consortium, shows that 64% of fruit and veg imports come from just ten countries, where temperatures are expected to rise by an average of 16% by 2050. Spain, the number one source of imported fruit and veg, is expected to go from nine ‘hot days’ (when the average 24-hour temperature exceeds 35°C) annually to 20. Peru’s number of hot days is expected to increase by 1000%, moving from one to eleven days a year

By the same year, 72% of produce from the top ten importing countries is projected to face extreme water stress, significantly increasing the risk of failed harvests and price volatility.

The UK’s reliance on imported food has grown steadily over the last century, with consumer expectations for year-round supply and changing diets leading to close to £10 billion spent annually on imports. The last 30 years have seen a marked increase in the consumption of exotic produce like avocados, mangoes, and pineapples. Worryingly, the report found that over the last five years, the UK increased its fruit and vegetable spending by 43% in countries facing extreme water stress.

“How we balance the risks presented by climate change across our domestic and imported supply of fresh food demands a proactive approach to deliver resilience,” says one of the report’s authors, Richard Bonn, Co-Founder of Aethr Associates. “Climate change and the projections over the next 25 years are really important, and growers need to ensure that existing crop production methods can withstand the climate of 2050 and beyond.”

The report calls on UK importers to evaluate where their exposure lies and to work closely with growers and suppliers to create mitigation plans. “Solutions may involve enhancing water storage, moderating the impacts of extreme temperatures, strengthening flood defences, and planting climate-resilient crop varieties. Ultimately, success will depend on our ability to adapt through forward-thinking investment in infrastructure and innovation.” says Bonn.

“Climate change is already reshaping the fresh produce sector, from tougher growing conditions to disrupted supply chains. Like Aethr, we believe this sector is incredibly adaptable to change; it just needs to fully understand that change first,” adds Kelly Shields, Technical Director of the Fresh Produce Consortium. “This report is the first time that the data has been put together to highlight the challenge, as well as to shine a light on key solutions.”

To safeguard food security, the authors urge businesses and policymakers to integrate climate risk into strategic decision-making. “We’re sharing our research and methodology to support the industry in adopting a standardised approach to understanding and mitigating climate change risk in their supply chain,” says Bonn. “While our latest report focuses on imports, the risk doesn’t stop at the border. UK-grown produce will also be affected by rising temperatures and water stress. We need to prepare across the board to build a food system that can withstand predicted climate changes.”

Read the strategic paper here.